Hurricane Michael

Forecast Advisory 11

---

407
WTNT22 KNHC 060239
TCMAT2

HURRICANE LESLIE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122012
0300 UTC THU SEP 06 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LESLIE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 62.5W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 170SE 100SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 210SE 120SW 330NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.2N 62.5W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 62.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 26.4N 62.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 25SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 110SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 26.8N 62.7W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 120SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 27.1N 63.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 130SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 27.7N 63.4W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 140SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 30.5N 64.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 35.5N 63.0W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 44.0N 59.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.2N 62.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG





735
WTNT23 KNHC 060239
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MICHAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
0300 UTC THU SEP 06 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 42.2W AT 06/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 990 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.3N 42.2W AT 06/0300Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 42.4W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 29.8N 41.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 30.5N 41.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 31.0N 41.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.5N 42.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 32.7N 43.0W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 34.0N 44.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 35.5N 46.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.3N 42.2W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH