Hurricane Michael

Forecast Advisory 12

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948
WTNT23 KNHC 060458
TCMAT3

HURRICANE MICHAEL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132012
0500 UTC THU SEP 06 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 42.0W AT 06/0500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 90SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 42.0W AT 06/0500Z
AT 06/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.1N 42.4W

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 29.8N 41.7W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 10SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 30.5N 41.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 31.0N 41.6W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 31.5N 42.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 32.7N 43.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 34.0N 44.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 95 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 35.5N 46.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 42.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/BRENNAN