Hurricane Rafael
Forecast Advisory 1
834
WTNT22 KNHC 122349
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
2330 UTC FRI OCT 12 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE U. S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS.
THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT.
THE GOVERNMENT OF CURACAO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE ISLANDS OF SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN.
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ST.
MARTIN...GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE...AND
MARTINIQUE.
THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
ST. LUCIA.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...
CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U. S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ANGUILLA...BARBUDA...ST. KITTS... NEVIS...ANTIGUA...AND MONTSERRAT
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTIN
* ST. MARTIN
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE
* MARTINIQUE
* ST. LUCIA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...CULEBRA...AND VIEQUES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 63.1W AT 12/2330Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 35 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 63.1W AT 12/2330Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.7N 62.7W
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.2N 63.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 18.0N 64.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 19.6N 64.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 21.4N 65.6W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 30SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 25.0N 67.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 32.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 43.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 63.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BEVEN
