Hurricane Rafael

Forecast Advisory 7

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897
WTNT22 KNHC 140850
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
0900 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...CULEBRA...VIEQUES...
BARBUDA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...ANTIGUA...MONTSERRAT...SABA...
ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. MAARTIN...AND ST. MARTIN

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED FOR PUERTO RICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANGUILLA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF RAFAEL....AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 63.8W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 120SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.4N 63.8W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.9N 63.6W

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 20.7N 64.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 22.5N 65.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 24.1N 66.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 27.1N 65.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 70SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 36.2N 60.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 46.1N 52.4W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 50.4N 44.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.4N 63.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART