Hurricane Rafael

Forecast Advisory 9

---

373
WTNT22 KNHC 142040
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
2100 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS
ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 64.7W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 180SE 0SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 64.7W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 64.4W

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 21.8N 65.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 23.5N 66.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.0N 65.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.3N 64.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 39.5N 56.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 48.5N 42.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 49.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 64.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN