Hurricane Rafael

Forecast Advisory 10

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897
WTNT22 KNHC 150242
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
0300 UTC MON OCT 15 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 64.8W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 0SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 210SE 60SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.6N 64.8W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.3N 64.7W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 22.8N 65.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 10NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 24.8N 65.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 30SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.5N 65.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.5N 62.6W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 40.5N 55.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 48.0N 39.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 49.0N 26.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.6N 64.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH