Hurricane Rafael

Forecast Advisory 11

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297
WTNT22 KNHC 150843
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
0900 UTC MON OCT 15 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 65.3W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 70NE 40SE 15SW 40NW.
34 KT.......150NE 150SE 50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 210SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.5N 65.3W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.1N 65.1W

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 23.9N 65.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.3N 65.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 160SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.6N 63.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...170NE 170SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 33.8N 60.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 60SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 42.6N 50.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 48.2N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 49.3N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.5N 65.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART