Hurricane Rafael

Forecast Advisory 12

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421
WTNT22 KNHC 151450
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1500 UTC MON OCT 15 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH
WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 65.7W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 150SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..350NE 210SE 150SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.0N 65.7W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 65.6W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 24.5N 65.7W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 27.4N 64.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 30.9N 63.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 90SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 35.4N 59.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 43.5N 47.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 150SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 180SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 47.0N 31.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 47.0N 20.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.0N 65.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN