Hurricane Rafael

Forecast Advisory 13

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641
WTNT22 KNHC 152050
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
2100 UTC MON OCT 15 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 65.8W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 90NE 50SE 20SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 80SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 210SE 240SW 390NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.1N 65.8W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.6N 65.8W

FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 26.1N 65.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.4N 64.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 80SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 33.7N 61.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 39.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 250SE 180SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 47.0N 41.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 180SE 140SW 0NW.
34 KT...240NE 360SE 320SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 48.0N 27.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 48.0N 25.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.1N 65.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN