Hurricane Rafael

Forecast Advisory 15

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463
WTNT22 KNHC 160840
TCMAT2

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
0900 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT
12 TO 24 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 65.0W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 80SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..315NE 270SE 390SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 65.0W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 65.3W

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 29.4N 63.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 90SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 33.8N 61.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.8N 56.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...200NE 220SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 43.3N 49.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 140SE 100SW 80NW.
34 KT...220NE 250SE 180SW 160NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 49.7N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 180SE 140SW 40NW.
34 KT...240NE 360SE 320SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 49.3N 28.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 46.5N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 65.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART