Hurricane Rafael

Forecast Advisory 16

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455
WTNT22 KNHC 161443
TCMAT2

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1500 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 64.5W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 971 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 90SW 130NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 270SE 390SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 64.5W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 64.9W

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 31.7N 62.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 25SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...190NE 190SE 100SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 36.5N 59.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...220NE 220SE 110SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 41.5N 53.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 45.5N 44.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 150SE 120SW 30NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 240SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 50.5N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...100NE 60SE 130SW 50NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 270SW 200NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 51.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 44.0N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.6N 64.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE