Hurricane Rafael

Forecast Advisory 17

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134
WTNT22 KNHC 162034
TCMAT2

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
2100 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 63.8W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 969 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 360SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 63.8W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.5N 64.4W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 34.0N 61.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.8N 57.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 43.1N 50.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 120SE 120SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 210SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 46.6N 40.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 270SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 52.5N 29.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 420SW 360NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 50.5N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 44.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 63.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE