Hurricane Rafael

Forecast Advisory 18

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813
WTNT22 KNHC 170245
TCMAT2

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
0300 UTC WED OCT 17 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 62.5W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 25 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 75 KT WITH GUSTS TO 90 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......180NE 180SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 360SE 360SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.4N 62.5W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.5N 63.1W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 36.2N 59.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 120SW 130NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 40.9N 54.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 44.9N 46.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 120SE 120SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 210SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 48.5N 36.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 90SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 270SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 53.5N 31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 120SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 420SW 360NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 49.0N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 43.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.4N 62.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH