Hurricane Rafael

Forecast Advisory 19

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939
WTNT22 KNHC 170832
TCMAT2

HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
0900 UTC WED OCT 17 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 60.7W AT 17/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 29 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT.......100NE 120SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......210NE 240SE 120SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 500SE 420SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 35.2N 60.7W AT 17/0900Z
AT 17/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 61.7W

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 38.8N 57.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 120SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...240NE 270SE 150SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 43.0N 50.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 100SE 100SW 60NW.
34 KT...240NE 240SE 210SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 46.5N 40.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 210SE 270SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 49.0N 31.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...210NE 210SE 270SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 54.5N 28.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...240NE 210SE 270SW 270NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 50.0N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 43.0N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 35.2N 60.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/1500Z

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FORECASTER BLAKE