Hurricane Rafael
Forecast Advisory 20
746
WTNT22 KNHC 171444
TCMAT2
HURRICANE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
1500 UTC WED OCT 17 2012
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 59.1W AT 17/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 30 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 50NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
50 KT.......100NE 120SE 60SW 80NW.
34 KT.......240NE 270SE 150SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..360NE 420SE 300SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.5N 59.1W AT 17/1500Z
AT 17/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.5N 60.1W
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 41.0N 54.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 150SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...240NE 300SE 180SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 44.8N 45.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 160SE 160SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 300SE 220SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 48.0N 36.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT...120NE 180SE 160SW 30NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 270SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 51.0N 30.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT...120NE 150SE 120SW 30NW.
34 KT...210NE 270SE 300SW 180NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 54.0N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 0SW 150NW.
34 KT...120NE 50SE 100SW 300NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 47.5N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 43.5N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.5N 59.1W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
