Hurricane Rafael

Forecast Advisory 21

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646
WTNT22 KNHC 172049
TCMAT2

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE RAFAEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL172012
2100 UTC WED OCT 17 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 56.5W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 30 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 972 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 70SE 60SW 0NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT.......270NE 270SE 150SW 170NW.
12 FT SEAS..330NE 480SE 480SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 40.2N 56.5W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.8N 58.0W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 42.9N 50.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...100NE 150SE 150SW 80NW.
34 KT...270NE 300SE 200SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 46.0N 41.8W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 150SE 150SW 90NW.
34 KT...240NE 300SE 300SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 49.0N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 150SE 150SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 330SE 330SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 52.0N 29.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 90SW 30NW.
34 KT...180NE 270SE 300SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 54.0N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...240NE 180SE 270SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 47.6N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/1800Z 43.0N 28.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 40.2N 56.5W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON RAFAEL. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS SYSTEM CAN BE
FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN