Hurricane Sandy

Forecast Advisory 15

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948
WTNT23 KNHC 260255
TCMAT3

HURRICANE SANDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
0300 UTC FRI OCT 26 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO FLAGLER BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF FLAGLER BEACH TO FERNANDINA BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. WATCHES AND WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE
REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.


HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 76.1W AT 26/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 335 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 968 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT.......200NE 180SE 70SW 200NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 360SE 120SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.3N 76.1W AT 26/0300Z
AT 26/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.8N 75.8W

FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 26.6N 76.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 100SW 200NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 27.6N 77.4W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 70SW 70NW.
34 KT...220NE 200SE 140SW 220NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 28.9N 76.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 35SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 100SW 120NW.
34 KT...230NE 200SE 180SW 230NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 30.4N 75.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 150SW 150NW.
34 KT...300NE 270SE 230SW 270NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 34.0N 72.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT...120NE 150SE 180SW 180NW.
34 KT...360NE 330SE 280SW 330NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 30/0000Z 37.5N 72.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z 40.5N 76.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.3N 76.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN