Tropical Storm Tony

Forecast Advisory 5



926
WTNT24 KNHC 232030
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012
2100 UTC TUE OCT 23 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 50.0W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 50.0W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 50.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.4N 48.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.8N 45.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.8N 42.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 30.7N 39.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.5N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 40.0N 34.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 50.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




073
WTNT23 KNHC 232035
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM SANDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
2100 UTC TUE OCT 23 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...
BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND
NEW PROVIDENCE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 77.6W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 77.6W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 77.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.7N 77.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.9N 77.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.3N 76.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.8N 76.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 80SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.3N 76.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 240SE 100SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 29.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 32.0N 69.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 77.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH




811
WTNT24 KNHC 232030
TCMAT4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012
2100 UTC TUE OCT 23 2012

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 50.0W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.3N 50.0W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 50.5W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 27.4N 48.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.8N 45.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.8N 42.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 30.7N 39.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 60SE 30SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 33.5N 34.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 40.0N 34.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.3N 50.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG




034
WTNT23 KNHC 232035
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM SANDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
2100 UTC TUE OCT 23 2012

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE ABACOS...ANDROS ISLAND...
BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND
NEW PROVIDENCE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF SANDY. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 77.6W AT 23/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 20 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 993 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 90SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 0SW 50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 77.6W AT 23/2100Z
AT 23/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 77.7W

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 15.7N 77.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.9N 77.1W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.3N 76.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 22.8N 76.9W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 80SW 180NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 26.3N 76.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 240SE 100SW 300NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 29.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 32.0N 69.0W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 77.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH