Tropical Storm Tony
Forecast Advisory 7
207
WTNT23 KNHC 240839
TCMAT3
TROPICAL STORM SANDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
0900 UTC WED OCT 24 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTH AND WEST TO FLAMINGO...INCLUDING FLORIDA
BAY.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA UPPER KEYS
FROM OCEAN REEF SOUTHWARD TO CRAIG KEY.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM JUPITER INLET TO FLAMINGO
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN
24 TO 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS LATER THIS MORNING.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF EAST-CENTRAL
FLORIDA LATER THIS MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 77.0W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE 45SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 180SE 45SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.3N 77.0W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 77.1W
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 17.9N 76.8W...NEAR JAMAICA
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE 50SW 60NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.6N 76.5W...INLAND EASTERN CUBA
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 10NE 10SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE 50SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 23.3N 76.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.
34 KT...170NE 120SE 60SW 170NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 25.7N 76.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.
34 KT...220NE 120SE 90SW 220NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 28.2N 76.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 80SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT...300NE 270SE 120SW 300NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z 31.0N 73.6W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0600Z 33.4N 70.3W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.3N 77.0W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
071
WTNT24 KNHC 240843
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM TONY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012
0900 UTC WED OCT 24 2012
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 47.9W AT 24/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 60 DEGREES AT 14 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 47.9W AT 24/0900Z
AT 24/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.1N 48.6W
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 28.5N 45.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 29.7N 42.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 30.7N 38.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 70SE 30SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 31.9N 35.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 90SE 30SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 36.0N 33.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 90SE 30SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.4N 47.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 24/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
