Tropical Storm Tony
Forecast Advisory 9
949
WTNT24 KNHC 242040
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM TONY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL192012
2100 UTC WED OCT 24 2012
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 42.5W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 65 DEGREES AT 22 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.6N 42.5W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 29.2N 43.6W
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 30.7N 39.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 31.9N 35.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 33.4N 31.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 35.0N 28.7W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 38.0N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 20SW 30NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 325 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.6N 42.5W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
552
WTNT23 KNHC 242042
TCMAT3
HURRICANE SANDY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL182012
2100 UTC WED OCT 24 2012
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET.
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED ALONG THE EAST COAST OF
FLORIDA TO FLAGLER BEACH.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LAS TUNAS...GRANMA...SANTIAGO DE
CUBA...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO
* THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAITI
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM OCEAN REEF TO SEBASTIAN INLET
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
* FLORIDA EAST COAST FROM NORTH OF SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* FLORIDA UPPER KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO CRAIG KEY
* FLORIDA BAY
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24
TO 36 HOURS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA....IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 TO 48 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 76.6W AT 24/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT.......110NE 120SE 70SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 240SE 0SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 76.6W AT 24/2100Z
AT 24/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 76.7W
FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 20.3N 76.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 70SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 23.5N 76.3W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 120SE 70SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 25.8N 76.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 40SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 140SE 90SW 190NW.
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 27.3N 77.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT...120NE 100SE 90SW 120NW.
34 KT...250NE 160SE 100SW 230NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 30.0N 76.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 100NW.
34 KT...300NE 270SE 180SW 300NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 28/1800Z 33.5N 72.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 37.0N 70.5W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 76.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
