Tropical Storm Dorian

Forecast Advisory 12

---

051
WTNT24 KNHC 270231
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042013
0300 UTC SAT JUL 27 2013

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF DORIAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 48.1W AT 27/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 19 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 30SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 48.1W AT 27/0300Z
AT 27/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 47.1W

FORECAST VALID 27/1200Z 18.3N 51.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 18.8N 55.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.3N 59.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 20.0N 63.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 21.0N 70.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N 48.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 27/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA