Tropical Storm Erin

Forecast Advisory 12



209
WTNT25 KNHC 172030
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052013
2100 UTC SAT AUG 17 2013

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 37.0W AT 17/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 50SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 75NE 60SE 30SW 75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.0N 37.0W AT 17/2100Z
AT 17/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.6N 36.4W

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 21.5N 38.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 22.2N 40.4W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 23.0N 42.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 24.0N 45.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 26.5N 49.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.0N 37.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN