Tropical Storm Jerry

Forecast Advisory 12

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906
WTNT21 KNHC 012036
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
2100 UTC TUE OCT 01 2013

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 43.5W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 43.5W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 43.5W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.4N 43.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 29.1N 43.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.0N 43.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 31.0N 41.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 33.0N 37.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 60SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 34.5N 32.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 37.0N 28.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.1N 43.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH