Tropical Storm Jerry

Forecast Advisory 15

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064
WTNT21 KNHC 021431
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1500 UTC WED OCT 02 2013

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 43.9W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 43.9W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.2N 43.9W

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 29.1N 43.2W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 30.3N 41.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 31.4N 39.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 32.4N 37.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.7N 31.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 40NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 37.5N 26.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.2N 43.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH