Tropical Storm Jerry
Forecast Advisory 19
370
WTNT21 KNHC 031430
TCMAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112013
1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2013
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 40.2W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 40.2W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.7N 40.7W
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 31.9N 38.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 32.9N 35.7W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 33.9N 33.1W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 35.2N 31.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 38.5N 27.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.0N 40.2W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
318
WTNT22 KNHC 031436
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122013
1500 UTC THU OCT 03 2013
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA TO INDIAN PASS FLORIDA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* WEST OF GRAND ISLE TO EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA
* METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS
* LAKE MAUREPAS
* LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 87.9W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE 20SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.2N 87.9W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 87.6W
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 23.8N 88.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 25.4N 89.4W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 30SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 26.9N 89.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 80SE 40SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 28.2N 89.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 90SE 40SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 31.0N 87.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 70SE 0SW 0NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 35.0N 81.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z...ABSORBED BY FRONT
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.2N 87.9W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
