Hurricane Arthur

Forecast Advisory 3

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620
WTNT21 KNHC 011455
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1500 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 24 TO 36 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES
SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 79.3W AT 01/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 0NE 40SE 40SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.6N 79.3W AT 01/1500Z
AT 01/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.5N 79.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 27.8N 79.4W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 28.7N 79.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 29.8N 79.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 31.2N 78.9W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 35.4N 75.2W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 40.8N 67.3W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 45.5N 59.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.6N 79.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART