Hurricane Arthur

Forecast Advisory 4

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339
WTNT21 KNHC 012046
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
2100 UTC TUE JUL 01 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT PIERCE TO FLAGLER BEACH

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR. TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES WILL
LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING FOR PORTIONS OF THIS AREA.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 79.4W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE 60SE 50SW 40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 27.8N 79.4W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.7N 79.3W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 28.3N 79.4W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 29.2N 79.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.4N 79.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 32.1N 78.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 36.6N 73.6W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 60SW 80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 42.2N 65.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 46.8N 57.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 27.8N 79.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART