Hurricane Arthur

Forecast Advisory 6

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426
WTNT21 KNHC 020852
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
0900 UTC WED JUL 02 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO
OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA...INCLUDING PAMLICO SOUND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH
CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF BOGUE INLET....AND FROM NORTH OF OREGON INLET
TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...INCLUDING EASTERN ALBEMARLE
SOUND.

THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF SEBASTIAN
INLET FLORIDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET TO OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA
* PAMLICO SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM SEBASTIAN INLET TO FLAGLER BEACH
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF BOGUE INLET NORTH
CAROLINA
* NORTH OF OREGON INLET NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WATCH
AREA THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
TROPICAL STORM ARTHUR.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 79.1W AT 02/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 70SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.4N 79.1W AT 02/0900Z
AT 02/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.1N 79.2W

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 29.3N 79.3W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 30.5N 79.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 32.1N 78.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 34.2N 76.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 40.0N 69.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 46.0N 62.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 50.0N 55.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.4N 79.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/1500Z

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FORECASTER BRENNAN