Hurricane Arthur

Forecast Advisory 10

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618
WTNT21 KNHC 030848
TCMAT1

HURRICANE ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
0900 UTC THU JUL 03 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD FROM DUCK NORTH
CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTH SANTEE RIVER SOUTH CAROLINA TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. ANY DEVIATION OF THE FORECAST TRACK TO THE
LEFT...OR AN INCREASE IN THE FORECAST SIZE OF ARTHUR WOULD LIKELY
REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR ALL OR PART OF THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ALONG THE UNITED STATES EAST COAST NORTH OF THE WARNING
AREA...PRIMARILY IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND...SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 79.1W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 10 DEGREES AT 8 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 985 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 70NE 80SE 60SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 50SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.3N 79.1W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 79.2W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 32.5N 78.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 34.7N 76.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 37.5N 72.6W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...100NE 130SE 110SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 40.9N 67.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 90SW 60NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 150SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 47.5N 60.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 150SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 210SE 210SW 180NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 54.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 60.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.3N 79.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN