Hurricane Arthur

Forecast Advisory 13

---

734
WTNT21 KNHC 040301
TCMAT1

HURRICANE ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
0300 UTC FRI JUL 04 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF CAPE FEAR.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE COAST
OF NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE...ALL OF
NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND...AND ALL OF PRINCE EDWARD
ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SURF CITY NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO SOUTH OF SURF CITY
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO CHATHAM

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
* ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* ALL OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 76.6W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 35 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 35SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT.......110NE 130SE 80SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 120SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.6N 76.6W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 34.0N 77.3W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 36.7N 74.5W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 40.0N 70.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 90SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 43.7N 66.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 170SE 120SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 46.2N 62.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 120SE 100SW 90NW.
34 KT...160NE 240SE 240SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 51.5N 54.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 57.5N 44.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 60.0N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.6N 76.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN