Hurricane Arthur

Forecast Advisory 14

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101
WTNT21 KNHC 040853
TCMAT1

HURRICANE ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
0900 UTC FRI JUL 04 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR CAPE COD HAS BEEN EXTENDED WESTWARD
TO WOODS HOLE.

THE HURRICANE WARNING WEST OF CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA TO THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER
* PAMLICO SOUND
* EASTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE
* ALL OF NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* ALL OF PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE ALREADY BEEN COMPLETED.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND...NEW
BRUNSWICK...AND NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 75.3W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 20 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 973 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 35SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 80SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 110SE 90SW 50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 180SE 180SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 36.0N 75.3W AT 04/0900Z
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 35.4N 76.0W

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 38.4N 72.3W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 42.2N 68.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 120SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 45.5N 64.6W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 30SE 20SW 45NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 47.5N 61.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT... 90NE 180SE 240SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 53.5N 53.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 150SE 120SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 59.0N 43.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 63.0N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 36.0N 75.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN