Hurricane Arthur

Forecast Advisory 15

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954
WTNT21 KNHC 041440
TCMAT1

HURRICANE ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
1500 UTC FRI JUL 04 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ENVIRONMENT CANADA HAS REPLACED ALL REMAINING TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES WITH A TROPICAL STORM WARNING.

ALL HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED. THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR WESTERN ALBEMARLE SOUND HAS ALSO BEEN DISCONTINUED.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT
VIRGINIA...INCLUDING THE MOUTH OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U. S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN COASTAL PORTIONS OF NEW ENGLAND AND
NEWFOUNDLAND SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ARTHUR.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 73.4W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 976 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 35SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 80SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 110SE 70SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 240SE 240SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 37.7N 73.4W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 36.8N 74.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 40.2N 70.1W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 35SE 30SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 130SE 90SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 44.0N 66.1W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 100SE 70SW 40NW.
34 KT...130NE 150SE 130SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 46.1N 63.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 60SW 50NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 160SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 48.0N 59.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 240SE 240SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 55.0N 52.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...100NE 300SE 240SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 59.0N 46.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 62.0N 35.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 37.7N 73.4W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN