Hurricane Arthur

Forecast Advisory 16

---

795
WTNT21 KNHC 042055
TCMAT1

HURRICANE ARTHUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012014
2100 UTC FRI JUL 04 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NON-TROPICAL HIGH WIND WARNINGS...FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH
...HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE. FOR DETAILS
PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY LOCAL NWS WEATHER FORECAST OFFICES.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NANTUCKET
* CAPE COD FROM PROVINCETOWN TO WOODS HOLE
* NOVA SCOTIA INCLUDING CAPE BRETON ISLAND
* PRINCE EDWARD ISLAND
* NEW BRUNSWICK FROM THE U.S./CANADA BORDER TO GRAND-ANSE

IN ADDITION...HIGH WIND WARNINGS...FOR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH...
ARE IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN MAINE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 71.1W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 45 DEGREES AT 23 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 70 KT WITH GUSTS TO 85 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 60SE 20SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 90SE 40SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 140SE 100SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 240SE 240SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 39.4N 71.1W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 38.4N 72.4W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 42.2N 68.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 90SE 60SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 140SE 100SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 45.3N 65.3W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 100SE 100SW 20NW.
34 KT...160NE 180SE 160SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 47.0N 61.9W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 100SE 100SW 20NW.
34 KT...160NE 220SE 160SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 49.4N 57.2W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...180NE 240SE 240SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 56.0N 51.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...360NE 360SE 240SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 60.0N 49.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 61.0N 42.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 39.4N 71.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN