Hurricane Bertha

Forecast Advisory 16

---

608
WTNT23 KNHC 042040
TCMAT3

HURRICANE BERTHA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032014
2100 UTC MON AUG 04 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 73.6W AT 04/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE 30SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 29.4N 73.6W AT 04/2100Z
AT 04/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.6N 73.6W

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 31.8N 72.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 34.7N 70.7W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 37.5N 67.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 40SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 40.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 60SE 20SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 150SE 80SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 47.0N 50.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 90NE 240SE 90SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 49.0N 37.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1800Z 49.0N 24.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 29.4N 73.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH