Tropical Storm Erika

Forecast Advisory 4

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292
WTNT25 KNHC 252045
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM ERIKA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
2100 UTC TUE AUG 25 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MONTSERRAT
* ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA
* ST. KITTS AND NEVIS
* ANGUILLA
* SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...AND ST. MAARTEN
* GUADELOUPE...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. BARTHELEMY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 52.8W AT 25/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT....... 70NE 70SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 30SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 52.8W AT 25/2100Z
AT 25/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 51.9W

FORECAST VALID 26/0600Z 16.1N 55.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 70SE 0SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 16.7N 58.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 17.4N 61.4W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 18.2N 64.3W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.3N 69.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 29/1800Z 22.5N 74.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 30/1800Z 25.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 52.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH