Hurricane Joaquin

Forecast Advisory 10

---

325
WTNT21 KNHC 300837
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
0900 UTC WED SEP 30 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING CAT ISLAND...THE EXUMAS...LONG
ISLAND...RUM CAY...AND SAN SALVADOR.

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND. THIS INCLUDES THE
ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...BIMINI...ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...
AND NEW PROVIDENCE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO 48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 72.5W AT 30/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 245 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE 50SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT.......100NE 110SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.4N 72.5W AT 30/0900Z
AT 30/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 72.0W

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 25.1N 73.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT...100NE 110SE 50SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 24.7N 73.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 24.7N 74.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE 60SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 25.2N 74.7W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 28.3N 73.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 90SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 33.0N 73.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 37.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.4N 72.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 30/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN