Hurricane Joaquin
Forecast Advisory 14
157
WTNT21 KNHC 010843
TCMAT1
HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
0900 UTC THU OCT 01 2015
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BIMINI
* ANDROS ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* ANDROS ISLAND
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 73.7W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 180SE 100SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 73.7W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 73.5W
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 23.1N 74.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 23.4N 74.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 25.0N 74.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 26.8N 74.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 190SE 120SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 32.5N 74.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...230NE 190SE 100SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 36.0N 74.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 39.0N 74.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 73.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
157
WTNT21 KNHC 010843
TCMAT1
HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
0900 UTC THU OCT 01 2015
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS...
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BIMINI
* ANDROS ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* ANDROS ISLAND
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION IN THE NORTHWESTERN
BAHAMAS.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 73.7W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT 4 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 948 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 130 KT.
64 KT....... 25NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE 60SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT.......100NE 120SE 100SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..220NE 180SE 100SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.4N 73.7W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 23.5N 73.5W
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 23.1N 74.2W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 40SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 70SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 130SE 100SW 90NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 23.4N 74.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE 100SW 100NW.
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 25.0N 74.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 100SW 120NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 26.8N 74.1W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...180NE 190SE 120SW 140NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 32.5N 74.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW.
34 KT...230NE 190SE 100SW 150NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 36.0N 74.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 39.0N 74.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.4N 73.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
