Hurricane Joaquin
Forecast Advisory 17
035
WTNT21 KNHC 020240
TCMAT1
HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
0300 UTC FRI OCT 02 2015
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS,
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE
* THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...AND MAYAGUANA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BIMINI
* ANDROS ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS
* ANDROS ISLAND
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LOS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOAQUIN. A
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED ON FRIDAY.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 74.6W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......140NE 180SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 74.6W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 74.4W
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 23.2N 74.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 160SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.7N 74.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 160SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 26.6N 73.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 29.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 33.4N 70.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 200NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 37.0N 68.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 42.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 74.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
035
WTNT21 KNHC 020240
TCMAT1
HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
0300 UTC FRI OCT 02 2015
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
NONE.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE ABACOS...BERRY ISLANDS,
ELEUTHERA...GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND...AND NEW PROVIDENCE
* THE ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...AND MAYAGUANA IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BIMINI
* ANDROS ISLAND
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* REMAINDER OF THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS INCLUDING THE TURKS AND
CAICOS ISLANDS
* ANDROS ISLAND
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF CAMAGUEY...LOS TUNAS...HOLGUIN...AND GUANTANAMO
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.
INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JOAQUIN. A
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED ON FRIDAY.
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 74.6W AT 02/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 3 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 935 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT.......140NE 180SE 160SW 160NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 150SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 74.6W AT 02/0300Z
AT 02/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 74.4W
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 23.2N 74.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 160SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 24.7N 74.4W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 45NE 45SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 160SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 26.6N 73.4W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 45SW 45NW.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...160NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 29.0N 72.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 160NW.
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 33.4N 70.2W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT...100NE 110SE 80SW 100NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 160SW 200NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 37.0N 68.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 42.0N 61.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.9N 74.6W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0900Z
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
