Hurricane Joaquin

Forecast Advisory 26



824
WTNT21 KNHC 040251
TCMAT1

HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
0300 UTC SUN OCT 04 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 68.9W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 180SE 100SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 240SE 240SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 68.9W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 69.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 29.9N 67.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 32.3N 66.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.3N 65.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 36.4N 62.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 41.0N 52.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 180SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 45.5N 36.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 50.5N 22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 68.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN




824
WTNT21 KNHC 040251
TCMAT1

HURRICANE JOAQUIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112015
0300 UTC SUN OCT 04 2015

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 68.9W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR 50 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 944 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......140NE 180SE 100SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..420NE 240SE 240SW 540NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 28.0N 68.9W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 27.4N 69.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 29.9N 67.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 32.3N 66.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 100SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 180SE 100SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 34.3N 65.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 200SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 36.4N 62.7W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 90SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 180SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 41.0N 52.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 200SE 180SW 150NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 45.5N 36.5W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 50.5N 22.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 28.0N 68.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN