Hurricane Earl

Forecast Advisory 3

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179
WTNT25 KNHC 030255
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
0300 UTC WED AUG 03 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND
HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FROM BELIZE CITY SOUTHWARD
TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA BORDER. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS
CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND HURRICANE WATCH TO A
HURRICANE WARNING NORTH OF BELIZE CITY TO PUERTO COSTA MAYA...
MEXICO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*PUERTO COSTA MAYA...MEXICO...SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA
BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO GRACIAS A DIOS WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS.
* NORTH OF PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 83.0W AT 03/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 40SE 0SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 30SE 45SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 83.0W AT 03/0300Z
AT 03/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N 82.3W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.7N 84.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 40SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.1N 87.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE 15SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.8N 89.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.4N 91.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 19.0N 95.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 0SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 19.5N 99.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.4N 83.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH