Hurricane Earl

Forecast Advisory 4

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904
WTNT25 KNHC 030848
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
0900 UTC WED AUG 03 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*PUERTO COSTA MAYA...MEXICO...SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA
BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CABO GRACIAS A DIOS WESTWARD TO THE HONDURAS/GUATEMALA BORDER
INCLUDING THE BAY ISLANDS OF HONDURAS.
* NORTH OF PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH OR HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE BAY
ISLANDS OF HONDURAS LATER THIS MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 83.7W AT 03/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 55 KT WITH GUSTS TO 65 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 50SE 0SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 45SE 60SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 83.7W AT 03/0900Z
AT 03/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 83.1W

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 16.5N 85.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 50SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.0N 87.9W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 60SE 30SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 17.5N 90.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.1N 92.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 19.0N 96.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/0600Z 19.0N 100.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 83.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN