Hurricane Earl

Forecast Advisory 7

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413
WTNT25 KNHC 040251
TCMAT5

HURRICANE EARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052016
0300 UTC THU AUG 04 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS DISCONTINUED ALL WARNINGS FOR THE
COAST OF HONDURAS AND THE BAY ISLANDS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO COSTA MAYA...MEXICO...SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE/GUATEMALA
BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUERTO COSTA MAYA TO PUNTA ALLEN...MEXICO.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 87.6W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 984 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 0SE 0SW 15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT.......120NE 80SE 30SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 90SE 75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.4N 87.6W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 86.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.7N 89.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 60SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 18.2N 91.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.5N 93.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.8N 95.1W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 20.0N 98.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.4N 87.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH