Tropical Storm Julia

Forecast Advisory 17

---

962
WTNT22 KNHC 180230
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
0300 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 41.3W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..270NE 90SE 150SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 41.3W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.9N 40.7W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.9N 43.3W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...180NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.1N 46.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 18.6N 48.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 60SE 40SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 19.4N 51.1W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 40NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 40SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 21.2N 56.1W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 40SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 23.7N 61.4W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 23/0000Z 25.8N 65.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 41.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI





146
WTNT21 KNHC 180231
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
0300 UTC SUN SEP 18 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 76.5W AT 18/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1010 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.6N 76.5W AT 18/0300Z
AT 18/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 76.4W

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 30.9N 76.8W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 31.5N 77.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 32.0N 77.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.5N 77.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.6N 76.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 18/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA