Tropical Storm Karl

Forecast Advisory 10

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084
WTNT21 KNHC 162039
TCMAT1

TROPICAL STORM JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
2100 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 75.7W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 190 DEGREES AT 3 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.8N 75.7W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.0N 75.6W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 30.7N 75.8W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 30.8N 76.1W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 31.1N 76.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 31.5N 77.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 33.0N 76.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 33.5N 75.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.8N 75.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN





506
WTNT22 KNHC 162045
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
2100 UTC FRI SEP 16 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 35.6W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......200NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 30SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 35.6W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.7N 35.0W

FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 19.0N 37.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...170NE 80SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 19.0N 39.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 19.0N 42.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...130NE 60SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 19.0N 45.3W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 70SE 30SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 20.0N 50.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...140NE 100SE 40SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 22.0N 55.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 25.0N 60.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.8N 35.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE