Tropical Storm Karl

Forecast Advisory 11

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709
WTNT22 KNHC 170248
TCMAT2

TROPICAL STORM KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
0300 UTC SAT SEP 17 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 37.0W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......180NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 90SE 90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 37.0W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.5N 36.4W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.5N 38.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 18.5N 41.5W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 18.5N 44.1W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 18.5N 46.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 90SE 0SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 20.0N 52.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 120SE 60SW 120NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 22.0N 57.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 25.0N 61.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.5N 37.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA





711
WTNT21 KNHC 170248
TCMAT1

TROPICAL DEPRESSION JULIA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112016
0300 UTC SAT SEP 17 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 76.3W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT 2 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.2N 76.3W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.3N 76.2W

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 30.2N 76.5W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 30.5N 77.0W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 31.0N 77.5W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 31.5N 77.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 32.5N 76.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 30.2N 76.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA