Tropical Storm Karl

Forecast Advisory 33

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106
WTNT23 KNHC 221432
TCMAT3

TROPICAL STORM LISA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 12
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132016
1500 UTC THU SEP 22 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 34.0W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT.......150NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 120SE 120SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N 34.0W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N 33.8W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 21.1N 35.1W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 0SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 22.5N 36.4W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...140NE 20SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 23.8N 37.6W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT...110NE 40SE 0SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 25.0N 39.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 28.0N 41.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 32.0N 39.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z 35.5N 37.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N 34.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN





221
WTNT22 KNHC 221446
TCMAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION KARL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 33
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122016
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC THU SEP 22 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE BERMUDA WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
BERMUDA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 36 TO
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 62.3W AT 22/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 120SE 0SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N 62.3W AT 22/1500Z
AT 22/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 61.9W

FORECAST VALID 23/0000Z 26.3N 63.7W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 28.3N 64.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 0SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 30.2N 64.7W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 32.3N 62.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 0NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 38.0N 50.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 60SW 0NW.
34 KT...150NE 180SE 150SW 70NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/1200Z 48.0N 32.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/1200Z...ABSORBED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N 62.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG/CAMPBELL/RUBIN-OSTER