Hurricane Matthew

Forecast Advisory 5

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294
WTNT24 KNHC 291451
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1500 UTC THU SEP 29 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BONAIRE...CURACAO...AND ARUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.

INTERESTS ALONG THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND COLOMBIA SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF MATTHEW.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 66.3W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 60 KT WITH GUSTS TO 75 KT.
50 KT.......100NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT.......180NE 120SE 50SW 150NW.
12 FT SEAS..480NE 150SE 60SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 66.3W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 65.5W

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 14.3N 68.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 100SE 50SW 150NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 14.1N 70.2W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 50SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 13.9N 71.8W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 50SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 13.9N 72.8W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 50SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 15.3N 74.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 90SE 60SW 140NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 18.0N 75.2W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 21.5N 75.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 66.3W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN