Hurricane Matthew

Forecast Advisory 22

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940
WTNT24 KNHC 031453
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
1500 UTC MON OCT 03 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* JAMAICA
* HAITI
* CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...HOLGUIN...
GRANMA...AND LAS TUNAS
* SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS...INCLUDING THE INAGUAS...MAYAGUANA...
ACKLINS...CROOKED ISLAND...LONG CAY...AND RAGGED ISLAND

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CUBAN PROVINCE OF CAMAGUEY
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* CENTRAL BAHAMAS...INCLUDING LONG ISLAND...EXUMA...RUM CAY...
SAN SALVADOR...AND CAT ISLAND

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA WESTWARD TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM PUERTO PLATA WESTWARD TO THE BORDER WITH
HAITI

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN HISPANIOLA...THE BAHAMAS...AND IN THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF MATTHEW.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 75.0W AT 03/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 941 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT.......160NE 100SE 90SW 110NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE 180SW 270NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 75.0W AT 03/1500Z
AT 03/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 74.9W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.0N 74.7W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 110SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 18.9N 74.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 35NE 35SE 25SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...160NE 120SE 90SW 110NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.8N 74.5W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 35NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...170NE 150SE 100SW 115NW.

FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.6N 74.9W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 80SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 100SW 140NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 25.5N 76.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 90NE 90SE 50SW 70NW.
34 KT...200NE 180SE 120SW 160NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 28.5N 77.5W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 08/1200Z 32.0N 77.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.6N 75.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/2100Z

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FORECASTER BRENNAN