Hurricane Matthew

Forecast Advisory 41

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816
WTNT25 KNHC 080838
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
0900 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 65.6W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 190 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 80SE 70SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.9N 65.6W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.1N 65.5W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 25.2N 65.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 90SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 24.7N 65.6W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 90SE 70SW 40NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 24.8N 65.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 25.4N 65.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 28.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 30.0N 67.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 32.5N 66.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.9N 65.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BERG





361
WTNT24 KNHC 080852
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 41
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
0900 UTC SAT OCT 08 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

ALL TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DISCONTINUED SOUTH OF
ALTAMAHA SOUND...GEORGIA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF ALTAMAHA SOUND TO SURF CITY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO CAPE LOOKOUT

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 80.5W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 955 MB
EYE DIAMETER 40 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 80SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 240SE 60SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 32.0N 80.5W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.6N 80.6W

FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 32.9N 79.4W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 20SW 25NW.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 40NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 33.7N 77.1W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT... 70NE 70SE 50SW 60NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 80SW 70NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 33.4N 75.1W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 80NE 70SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...180NE 160SE 100SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 32.6N 73.5W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 120SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 29.0N 73.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 50SW 50NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0600Z 26.0N 75.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 25.0N 76.2W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 32.0N 80.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART