Hurricane Nicole

Forecast Advisory 20



811
WTNT25 KNHC 090239
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152016
0300 UTC SUN OCT 09 2016

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 65.7W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 999 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE 90SE 50SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 90SE 60SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.4N 65.7W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.6N 65.7W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 24.0N 65.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 110SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 24.4N 65.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 110SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 25.2N 65.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 60NE 110SE 60SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 26.3N 65.7W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 70SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 28.0N 66.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT... 80NE 120SE 70SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 30.5N 66.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 34.0N 62.0W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.4N 65.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




163
WTNT24 KNHC 090247
TCMAT4

HURRICANE MATTHEW FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 44
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142016
0300 UTC SUN OCT 09 2016

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST
NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT TO DUCK...INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

ALL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED WEST OF LITTLE RIVER INLET ON THE
SOUTH CAROLINA-NORTH CAROLINA BORDER.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LITTLE RIVER INLET TO SURF CITY

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF SURF CITY TO DUCK
* PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE SOUNDS

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 76.5W AT 09/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST OR 70 DEGREES AT 12 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 982 MB
EYE DIAMETER 15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT.
64 KT....... 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW.
50 KT....... 70NE 80SE 90SW 30NW.
34 KT.......160NE 140SE 120SW 70NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 240SE 290SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 34.1N 76.5W AT 09/0300Z
AT 09/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 33.9N 77.3W

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 34.6N 74.7W...POST-TROPICAL
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 0NE 0SE 60SW 0NW.
50 KT... 60NE 80SE 90SW 90NW.
34 KT...170NE 140SE 120SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 34.4N 72.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 0NE 0SE 80SW 80NW.
34 KT...175NE 175SE 200SW 175NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 33.8N 70.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 210SW 210NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 33.0N 69.0W...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 0NE 0SE 240SW 240NW.

FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z...ABSORBED BY FRONTAL SYSTEM

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 34.1N 76.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN